The situation in the global vegetable oil markets has changed significantly due to the conflict in the Middle East, as:

• Fuel costs have risen, and with them sea freight rates.

• Fertilisers are less readily available and more expensive.

• Interest in biofuels (where palm, soya and rapeseed oils are the most widely used) is growing rapidly.

The rise in demand for vegetable oils in the energy sector is reducing stocks and displacing some food consumption. Below is the increase of more than 7 Mt from 22/23 to the forecast for this season (excluding UCO, Used Cooking Oil).

Despite the seasonal recovery in palm oil production, several factors continue to underpin prices, even at current high levels:

• Palm oil stocks in Malaysia fell sharply between January and March 2026 due to a surge in exports. In Indonesia, stocks are also low.

• Implementation of B50 in Indonesia from 1 July.

• Global palm oil production in 2026 is forecast to fall below 2025 levels.

• High probability of an El Niño event in the second half of 2026, which could affect yields in 2027.

• Reduced use of fertilisers, which will affect yields in the coming months.

On the other hand, the global area under sunflower cultivation is expected to increase, as attractive margins for farmers encourage its planting over less profitable crops (wheat, barley or maize). Under normal weather conditions, global production could rise significantly in the 2026/27 season.

If weather conditions are favourable in the coming months —which are critical for the development of this crop— global sunflower seed production could increase by 7-8 million tonnes and reach a record level, which would undoubtedly ease the high prices of this
oil seen in recent months.

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: