Palm oil prices have been very competitive lately, stimulating price-sensitive demand (especially in India). This could support prices from April onwards, along with any recovery in energy prices. Land expropriation in Indonesia by the government and renewed speculation about a B50 regulation in 2027 could provide additional support.

At the POC in Kuala Lumpur a few weeks ago, Dorab Mistry gave a CPO price forecast of between 3,800 and 4,300 Ringgits/tonne until July. Biofuel policies in several countries, mainly the US, Indonesia and Brazil, were mentioned as factors to watch.

This weekend’s events in the Middle East and their potential impact are not assessed in this report, although there is no doubt that they add significant uncertainty to trade flows and futures markets for many commodities, beyond vegetable oils.

For its part, sunflower oil reached its highest price in four years in January. Losses related to the drought of between 5 and 7 MnT of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region last summer will only be partially offset by an exceptional harvest in Argentina.

As a result, the price premium of sunflower oil over soybean oil has begun to narrow, but remains high. Given current price levels and the steep inverse, demand for sunflower oil is being rationed and shifting to other vegetable oils where possible.

With regard to lauric oils (palm kernel and coconut), Philippine copra and coconut oil (CNO) production is expected to recover gradually this year, mainly in the second half. Philippine coconut oil exports are expected to increase by 20% in 2026 to around 1.20 MnT, close to the average for the last five years.

However, Philippine export volumes have not yet improved significantly and the improvement is being postponed until ‘the next quarter’. CIF Rotterdam prices fell until January but have recovered in recent weeks. The market is assessing whether the reduction in the premium over palm kernel reflects the current supply situation.

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: