Palm oil prices have recently come under pressure, mainly due to high stocks in Malaysia and falling energy prices. This weakness is expected to be temporary. The current price discount is supporting export demand. At the same time, the outlook for global palm oil production for 2026 has worsened.

In Indonesia, government intervention in the form of confiscating palm plantations remains a serious concern, as this, combined with exchange restrictions, reduces investment, fertiliser use and the replanting that is so necessary to maintain production levels in the coming years.

Sunflower oil prices have remained firm and at a significant premium to other vegetable oils, following the loss of at least 4 MnT of global sunflower seed production due to adverse weather conditions in the northern hemisphere. However, demand for both conventional and high-oleic sunflower oil is already being rationed due to high prices. Part of the demand is being diverted to palm, rapeseed or soybean oils.

In the 25/26 season, global consumption will exceed demand for the second time in the last three seasons (see below) and the stock-to-use ratio will be the lowest in recent years:

With regard to lauric oils, global coconut exports will decline by 0.5 MnT in 2025, mainly from the Philippines. The impact of the recent typhoon in the Philippines appears to be limited, so production and exports are expected to recover from the second quarter of 2026 onwards, thanks to favourable rainfall levels. CNO prices have fallen from multi-year highs: CCNO CIF Rotterdam prices have fallen to around USD 2,200/tonne.

Palm kernel prices continue to trade at a very high premium to palm oil, and declining competitiveness against mineral oils is weighing on demand for oleochemical products.

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: