The global vegetable oils market continues to be characterized by a combination of strong demand and increasing supply and logistical risks. Demand remains primarily driven by North America, where expanding biofuel production is maintaining robust consumption of vegetable oils, particularly soybean and rapeseed oil.

On the supply side, exports from the Black Sea region continue to be severely disrupted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, reducing sunflower oil availability and complicating regional logistics. In addition, low water levels on the Danube and Rhine rivers are impacting transportation and crushing activity across Europe, providing further support to vegetable oil prices.

Weather developments remain the market’s key risk factor. Market participants continue to closely monitor the evolution of El Niño, which could negatively affect palm and lauric oil production during 2027. At the same time, higher energy prices are improving biodiesel competitiveness and continue to provide strong support to the overall vegetable oil complex.

The rapeseed market remains structurally bullish. Although EU planted area is expected to increase by approximately 5%, production is forecast to remain slightly below 2025 levels due to heat waves that have reduced yields in France, Germany and Poland. Demand remains strongly supported by European biodiesel policies.

The soybean market continues to be driven by growing energy demand. The United States is heading toward a record soybean crop thanks to increased planted acreage and weather conditions that have largely preserved yield potential despite some localized dryness.

The sunflower oil market is currently shaped by two key factors: Black Sea logistics and expectations for a very large global crop. Exports remain constrained by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If logistics normalize, sunflower oil prices are expected to weaken relative to rapeseed and soybean oil; however, continued disruptions would keep the market well supported.

The palm oil market currently enjoys a relatively comfortable supply situation. Combined production in Malaysia and Indonesia during the first half of 2026 was approximately 8% higher than in 2025, allowing stocks to build despite strong export demand.

Lauric oils (CCNO & PKO) are currently the vegetable oil group with the greatest upside price potential. Strong exports from Indonesia and the Philippines during the second quarter of 2026 pushed prices to multi-year lows, but market participants increasingly see upside risks ahead, particularly due to weather-related concerns linked to El Niño.

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: